The crypto market loves a good seasonal story, and November has historically delivered some of the most dramatic plot twists. For many traders, the phrase altcoin season evokes images of mid-caps ripping, micro-caps doubling overnight, and liquidity rotating away from the orange coin into a sprawling crypto market of narratives—DeFi, Layer-2, AI tokens, gaming, and beyond. Yet relying on vibes rarely ends well. If you want to approach November with a research-driven edge, it helps to understand the concrete, testable conditions that tend to precede an Altcoin Season Signals rally.
In this guide, we unpack three indicators that often appear before—or alongside—the emergence of an Altcoin Season Signals season: a rollover in Bitcoin dominance, a sustained improvement in market breadth, and a rise in on-chain activity that confirms real users are returning to networks. We’ll also look at how seasonality can shape expectations without becoming a crutch, and we’ll link to reputable tools so you can track these signals for yourself.
Before we dive in, a quick framing: no single metric “calls” the market. The useful mindset is mosaic theory—multiple independent signals that, together, build conviction. Read these indicators as evidence, not certainty, and combine them with your own risk management.
Why November matters—but not for the reasons you think
It’s tempting to lean entirely on calendar lore. Historically, November has been a strong month for Bitcoin on average, a pattern highlighted in multiple analyses referencing CoinGlass’s monthly returns. The average November gain across certain sample periods is unusually high, which helps explain why confidence often builds into Q4 rallies.
Still, dispersion is enormous: standout years like 2013 and 2020 skew the averages, and some Novembers have been outright rough. Treat seasonality as a tailwind, not a trading system. Seasonality alone doesn’t tell you when altcoin season might start. For that, we look at structural signals that reflect how market participants are actually allocating capital and using networks. Let’s break down the three most actionable ones.
Bitcoin dominance starts to stall—and liquidity rotates
Bitcoin dominance—BTC’s share of total crypto market capitalization—is one of the cleanest top-down gauges of whether capital is concentrated in Bitcoin or dispersing into altcoins. When dominance trends higher, market participants are typically seeking the relative safety and liquidity of BTC. When dominance stalls or rolls over, it often signals the early stages of risk-on behavior and liquidity rotation toward altcoins.
What Bitcoin dominance is—and isn’t
Bitcoin dominance is calculated as BTC’s market cap divided by the total crypto market cap. It’s displayed prominently across data platforms and is widely tracked by traders. As a concept it’s simple, but it has nuances—for example, stablecoins can distort the picture, and cycles can differ across sectors. Still, as a first-pass macro indicator, it remains useful.
How a dominance rollover supports altcoin season
When BTC leads impulsively and dominance rises, altcoins often lag. Once Bitcoin consolidates and dominance fails to make new highs—or begins to trend lower—traders frequently rotate profits into majors (like ETH), then into high-quality mid-caps, and eventually into smaller caps. This diffusion of flows is the textbook altseason progression. Educational overviews from crypto media and exchanges regularly connect a falling dominance regime with stronger relative performance from alts; just remember that it’s a tendency, not a rule.
What to watch in November
November’s historical strength for BTC can actually set the stage for an altcoin rotation if leadership broadens after an initial Bitcoin impulse. If dominance fails to push higher on positive BTC news or starts to roll over on consolidations, that’s your first breadcrumb that altcoin season conditions may be emerging. Keep an eye on major headlines about dominance hitting multi-year highs or retracing—these contextualize where we are in the cycle.
Market breadth improves across the board
Even if Bitcoin dominance stalls, you still want to see altcoins actually participating. That’s where market breadth comes in. Breadth measures how many assets are moving higher versus lower and whether rallies are being bought broadly or carried by a handful of names.
Defining breadth for crypto
In equities, traders use the Advance/Decline Line (A/D line) to track the net number of advancing versus declining issues. The same logic applies in crypto: if a growing share of altcoins are making higher highs, closing above moving averages, or outperforming BTC, breadth is improving. Education resources describe A/D as a cumulative indicator that confirms trend strength and warns of potential reversals through divergence. Adapted to crypto, its role is similar: healthy alt rallies are broad rallies.
Practical breadth checks you can run
You don’t need a quant stack to gauge breadth. Ask simple, consistent questions each week:
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How many of the top 50 non-stablecoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the last 90 days?
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What percentage of large-cap and mid-cap alts are above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages?
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Are new weekly highs expanding beyond a handful of sectors (e.g., not just Layer-2 or AI tokens)?
The Altcoin Season Index from BlockchainCenter is a popular shorthand here: if at least 75% of the top-50 coins (excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens) have outperformed BTC over the last 90 days, the tool flags “altcoin season.” You shouldn’t use the index mechanically, but it’s a helpful, transparent datapoint for breadth.
Why breadth matters in November
If historical tailwinds bring fresh capital into crypto in November, you want to see that money diffusing across more than a tiny set of names. A rising tide that lifts most boats—and not just megacaps—is what gives an altcoin rally durability. Improving breadth for two to four consecutive weeks into late November is often more meaningful than a single green week.
On-chain activity turns from trickle to trend
Price can move on speculation; networks grow on usage. Sustained increases in on-chain activity—new addresses, active users, transfer volume, exchange outflows, fee pressure—are the strongest fundamental confirmation that a rally is not just short-covering. You want to see a pattern of improving network engagement that lines up with price leadership.
What to monitor on-chain
Analytics providers like Glassnode outline a framework for tracking network health. For example, the Number of Non-Zero Addresses can show expanding user bases; Exchange Inflow/Outflow Volume can hint at investor behavior (accumulation vs. distribution); and measures of active addresses or new addresses help reveal momentum in network effects. None of these metrics alone is a magic wand, but together they paint a picture of whether altcoins are seeing real usage growth.
From price pop to network trend
An altcoin might spike on a narrative—say, restaking, modular blockchains, or decentralized AI—yet if on-chain activity doesn’t rise with it, the move often fades. Conversely, when a sector shows both price strength and on-chain follow-through (new wallets, rising fees, brisk DEX volumes), it indicates genuine adoption pressure. Overviews on using on-chain tools consistently stress triangulation: avoid over-reliance on one metric and always interpret it in macro context.
Why November can amplify on-chain shifts
Q4 typically brings product launches, conference roadmaps, and year-end liquidity dynamics. If developers ship upgrades or a new Layer-2 reaches a milestone in November, you’ll often see it immediately in network metrics—and, soon after, in token performance. Rising activity into late November and early December is especially notable, as it can extend momentum into the new year.
Pulling it together: A 3-step approach for November
Step 1: Start top-down with dominance
Each week, note whether Bitcoin dominance is making higher highs, ranging, or rolling over. Rising dominance suggests patience; flat-to-falling dominance invites a look at alts. Keep in mind that dominance can be influenced by stablecoin issuance and sector idiosyncrasies, so use it as a directional compass rather than a trading signal.
Step 2: Confirm breadth with a simple dashboard
Build a minimal breadth dashboard for the top 50 non-stablecoins. Track:
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90-day relative performance vs. BTC (or just consult the Altcoin Season Index baseline definition).
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% above the 50D and 200D moving averages by market-cap bucket.
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Count of weekly closing highs by sector.
You can replicate the index’s spirit yourself or lean on the public tool’s 75% threshold definition to keep your view consistent month to month.
Step 3: Validate with on-chain
Pick three on-chain metrics for any altcoin you’re considering—active addresses, new addresses, and exchange outflows. Look for rising 30-day trends that align with price structure. Dashboards from established analytics platforms walk through these measures and how to interpret them, emphasizing that multiple confirming signals beat a single flashy datapoint.
The role of seasonality—and its limits
Seasonality can frame expectations for November. Analyses drawing on CoinGlass’s heatmaps have found that November often appears among Bitcoin’s strongest months on average, even outpacing the much-memed October in some sample windows. That context matters because Bitcoin strength often precedes or coincides with altcoin rotation. But the same datasets also remind us that dispersion is wide and outliers matter—big up months share space with painful Novembers. Keep seasonality in your back pocket; let the three indicators drive decisions.
Narratives, catalysts, and the psychology of altseason
Data moves markets, but so do stories. Explanatory pieces on altcoin season frequently highlight the interplay between Bitcoin’s cycle, investor psychology, liquidity conditions, and technological narratives. In practice, that looks like capital stepping down the risk curve as confidence rises—BTC to ETH, majors to mid-caps, then selective small-caps. The caveat is timing: narrative overreach without the three indicators tends to mark late-stage blow-offs rather than early-stage opportunities.
How to avoid common pitfalls
The biggest trap is over-optimization—mistaking a backtested recipe for a living market. Another is confirmation bias—seeing what you want to see in a single metric. The antidotes are simple: combine signals, slow your timeframe, and size positions as if you might be wrong.
November game plan: turning signals into structure
Craft a weekly cadence that keeps you honest:
Monday: Mark BTC dominance structure (higher high, range, or lower high). Jot down your bias for the week.
Mid-week: Refresh breadth stats: % of top-50 alts above key MAs; count of alts outperforming BTC on a 90-day lookback; sector-level leadership.
Friday: Pull on-chain snapshots for any altcoins on your watchlist and compare them with last Friday. Are active addresses and new addresses building a trend? Are exchange outflows consistent with accumulation?
By the last Friday of November, you’ll have a short stack of observations—not predictions—that show whether an altcoin season is merely a headline or a developing market regime. Use those notes to decide whether to press winners, rotate, or step back.
Risk, sizing, and the sleep-at-night test
Even when all three indicators align, altcoins are volatile. Practice incremental sizing rather than all-in bets; let position size expand only after the market confirms your thesis. Keep a plan for invalidation (e.g., dominance breaking higher, breadth contracting for two weeks, on-chain usage rolling over). The goal in an altseason is not to top-tick every move; it’s to participate in the middle while preserving capital for the next cycle.
Tools and references at a glance
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Altcoin Season Index: Tracks whether 75% of the top-50 (ex-stablecoins) outperformed BTC over 90 days—useful for a quick breadth pulse.
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Bitcoin Dominance primers: Concept explanations and caveats to help you interpret dominance in context.
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On-chain tutorials and dashboards: Walkthroughs on reading network activity, with emphasis on triangulating multiple metrics.
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Seasonality discussions: Historical November performance as a contextual (not deterministic) tailwind.
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Breadth concepts: A/D line basics adapted from traditional finance to crypto.
Conclusion
If you’re wondering whether an altcoin season may be emerging this November, keep your eyes on three things: a pause or rollover in Bitcoin dominance, a persistent expansion in market breadth, and a visible uptick in on-chain activity for the sectors and tokens leading the charge. Seasonality can provide a helpful backdrop—November has a history of strong performance—but robust signals matter more than the calendar. Combine these indicators, size responsibly, and give yourself time. The market will tell you when it’s broadening; your job is to listen, not to guess.
FAQs
Q: What exactly is “altcoin season,” and how is it measured?
“Altcoin season” is an informal term for periods when a majority of altcoins outperform Bitcoin. One widely referenced heuristic is the Altcoin Season Index, which flags altseason if at least 75% of the top-50 non-stablecoins have beaten BTC over the last 90 days. It’s a proxy for market breadth, not a guarantee of future returns.
Q: Does a drop in Bitcoin dominance always mean altcoins will pump?
No. Bitcoin dominance can fall for reasons unrelated to altcoin strength (e.g., rising stablecoin market caps). Treat dominance as context, then confirm with breadth (% of alts outperforming) and on-chain metrics (active addresses, new addresses, exchange flows) to avoid false positives.
Q: Which on-chain metrics best confirm an emerging altseason?
Focus on active addresses, new addresses, and exchange outflows for leading altcoins or sectors. Consistent 30-day uptrends in these metrics—alongside price strength—suggest that real users are returning and that demand isn’t purely speculative. Tutorials from analytics providers outline how to read these signals in context.
Q: Is November truly the best month for crypto?
November often screens strong in Bitcoin’s historical monthly averages, which can set a constructive backdrop. But dispersion is wide, and outliers matter; a strong average doesn’t guarantee a strong month every year. Use seasonality as a backdrop and let the three indicators drive decisions.
Q: How do I avoid getting trapped at the end of altcoin season?
Watch for the reverse of the three indicators: Bitcoin dominance turning higher, market breadth contracting for multiple weeks, and on-chain usage rolling over. Late-stage alt pumps often lack breadth and fundamentals. When those divergences appear, consider reducing risk and rotating into strength (or into cash/stablecoins) rather than chasing momentum.
Also Read: Bitcoin’s Ascent Reignites Altcoin Dreams
